Africa's streaming market is not shrinking. The subscription part of it is. Rights holders that still build every deal around a pay-TV or subscription exclusive are selling into the slowest-growing part of the market. Our view: the next round of African rights packages should define and price an ad-funded window, rather than leaving that audience to unlicensed clips and piracy.

What happened

3Vision's latest Video Markets Tracker, published on 6 November and reported by Broadcast Media Africa on 12 November, forecasts that sub-Saharan Africa will be the only region in the world where subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) subscriptions fall in 2026, by 4.7%. The main cause is the closure of Showmax, which Canal+ shut on 30 April with about 2.4 million subscriptions, according to 3Vision.

Yet total streaming revenue in the region is still forecast to rise by 12.2% this year. Advertising-funded video (AVOD) is expected to grow from 35% to 41% of regional streaming revenue, the second-largest increase of any region. Globally, 3Vision estimates that YouTube takes 51% of AVOD revenue in 2026.

What it means

The audience has not left. It has moved to free, mobile and ad-supported screens, and the money is following it. That has practical consequences for everyone who buys or sells African sport.

  • Rights holders: a pay-TV exclusive that reaches only subscribers is worth less if the wider audience is watching for free elsewhere. Exclusivity still has value, but it should be priced against the reach it gives up, not assumed.
  • Platforms: YouTube and free ad-supported streaming TV (FAST) channels are now a revenue line, not just a promotional tool. If a league's highlights or archive circulate on free platforms without a contract, someone else is collecting the advertising.
  • Broadcasters: free-to-air and hybrid broadcasters with a digital product are better placed than pure subscription services. CAF already splits free-to-air from pay rights, as its 3 November appointment of free-to-air partners for AFCON 2027 shows.
  • Sponsors: ad-funded reach is larger and more measurable. Sponsors will increasingly ask for verified impressions across every screen, not just a logo on a subscription feed.

One caution: advertising revenue per viewer in the region is low, and one platform dominates it. An ad-funded window is a way to reach and monetise a bigger audience, not a reason to give rights away cheaply.

What we'd do

  1. Split the package. Define live pay-TV, free or ad-funded live or delayed coverage, highlights and short-form, and archive as separate rights, each with its own window and price. Do not let "digital" sit as an undefined add-on to a broadcast deal.
  2. Run an official channel. Leagues and federations with an archive should launch, or license, an official YouTube or FAST channel on revenue-share terms, so that advertising earned on their content comes back to them.
  3. Make data a contract term. Require every licensee, paid or free, to report audience and advertising delivery data by market. Without it, you cannot sell sponsors verified reach or price the next cycle properly.
  4. Sell sponsors the whole audience. Package in-stream and on-screen sponsor inventory across the ad-funded window and price it on delivered impressions, alongside the traditional broadcast package.

Sources: Broadcast Media Africa, "Sub-Saharan Africa Records Decline In SVOD Subscriptions As Advertising-Funded Streaming Gains Ground", 12 November 2026 (reporting 3Vision's Video Markets Tracker, 6 November 2026); 3Vision, "Showmax Was Growing When Canal+ Shut It Down" (Showmax closure date and subscriptions); Africa Soccer, "CAF names broadcast partners for 2027 AFCON across sub-Saharan Africa", 3 November 2026.